Commodity Markets Outlook Today
Gold is likely to remain under near-term pressure as elevated yields and a firm dollar continue to weigh on sentiment, particularly amid rising expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy. However, downside may be cushioned by persistent geopolitical risks and early signs of dip-buying interest. Near-term price action will be driven by headlines around the Middle East conflict and any shifts in rate expectations, keeping volatility elevated.
Copper is expected to trade with a cautious-to-soft bias intraday, as elevated geopolitical uncertainty and a stronger dollar continue to weigh on sentiment, alongside fading rate-cut expectations. However, underlying support from resilient China demand signals and near-term supply tightness may limit deeper downside. On the technical front, LME copper resistance at $12,500–12,550/mt, while support is seen at $12,300/mt, with a break below potentially extending losses toward $12,000/mt.
WTI crude is likely to remain firm to higher intraday, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz. While intermittent headlines around potential ceasefire talks may trigger brief pullbacks, the broader bias stays bullish amid heightened uncertainty. Technically, immediate resistance is seen near $116–118/bbl, while support lies at $112/bbl, with dips likely to attract buying interest.
| Commodity Moves | ||||||||||
| Commodity | Exchange | Expiry | Open | High | Low | Close | Net Chg | %Chg | Volume | Oi |
| US Gold | COMEX | Apr | 4,656.10 | 4,689.60 | 4,605.00 | 4,656.80 | 5.30 | 0.11 | 148 | 1,900 |
| INX Gold | India Inx | Apr | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gold | MCX | May | 1,48,847.00 | 1,51,390.00 | 1,48,298.00 | 1,49,981.00 | 2,520.00 | 1.71 | 5,949 | 7,157 |
| US Silver | COMEX | Apr | 71.85 | 71.85 | 71.85 | 72.66 | (0.07) | -0.10 | 1 | 177 |
| Silver | MCX | May | 2,30,716.00 | 2,36,390.00 | 2,29,651.00 | 2,33,379.00 | 884.00 | 0.38 | 4,119 | 5,819 |
| Bulldex | MCX | Apr | ||||||||
| London Copper | LME | 3M | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Copper | MCX | Apr | 1,151.05 | 1,171.50 | 1,151.00 | 1,161.50 | 6.40 | 0.55 | 6,863 | 8,932 |
| Nickel | MCX | Apr | 1,639.90 | 1,643.70 | 1,615.00 | 1,631.40 | (9.40) | -0.57 | 218 | 319 |
| Zinc | MCX | Apr | 323.00 | 325.50 | 321.15 | 324.45 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 957 | 1,797 |
| Lead | MCX | Apr | 195.25 | 196.55 | 194.55 | 196.25 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 114 | 324 |
| Aluminium | MCX | Apr | 355.45 | 358.70 | 349.20 | 352.40 | (1.95) | -0.55 | 1,970 | 3,321 |
| Metldex | MCX | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WTI Crude Oil | NYMEX | May | 112.96 | 115.48 | 108.89 | 112.41 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 2,71,742 | 2,35,696 |
| Brent Crude | ICE | Jun | 110.00 | 111.89 | 106.85 | 109.77 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 2,65,506 | - |
| Crudeoil | MCX | Jun | 10,350.00 | 10,640.00 | 10,162.00 | 10,588.00 | 180.00 | 1.73 | 77,804 | 15,545 |
| US NaturalGas | NYMEX | Oct | 2.84 | 2.87 | 2.77 | 2.81 | 0.01 | 0.39 | 1,00,084 | 3,07,738 |
| Natural Gas | MCX | Apr | 268.10 | 270.40 | 261.00 | 265.80 | 1.80 | 0.68 | 69,932 | 34,852 |
| Enrgdex | MCX | Apr |
Commodities in Focus
On the daily chart, MCX Gold (June) is currently trading with a sideways to mildly bearish bias after failing to sustain above the rising trend line, reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure. Prices are also holding below the mean of the Bollinger Bands, indicating persistent negative sentiment and underlying weakness in the trend. Additionally, the RSI remains firmly below the 50 level, reflecting continued bearish momentum and suggesting limited upside in the near term. Considering the current technical setup, a sell-on-rise strategy is recommended.
| GOLD (JUNE) |
| CMP Rs. 149950 |
| Trend: Sideways down |
| Immediate Support |
| 145700 |
| Strong Support |
| 141600 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 152500 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 154600 |
On the daily chart, MCX Crude Oil (April) is trading above the falling trend line, indicating a shift toward a bullish market structure. Prices are holding above the Bollinger Bands’ mean, reflecting sustained positive sentiment and underlying trend strength. Additionally, the RSI remains above the 50 level, signaling continued bullish momentum, though suggesting that near-term upside may remain gradual. Given the current technical setup, a buy-on-dips strategy is recommended.
| CRUDE OIL (APRIL) |
| CMP Rs. 10590 |
| Trend: Sideways up |
| Immediate Support |
| 10000 |
| Strong Support |
| 9600 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 10900 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 11200 |
On the daily chart, MCX Natural Gas (April) is currently breach strong support near the 270 level, suggesting a sideways to mildly bearish market structure. Prices are sustaining below the mean of the Bollinger Bands, indicating persistent negative sentiment and underlying strength in the ongoing trend. Furthermore, the RSI remains firmly positioned below the 50 level, reflecting continued bearish momentum, although it also suggests that near-term downside may be relatively measured.
| NATURAL GAS (APRIL) |
| CMP Rs. 266.60 |
| Trend: Sideways down |
| Immediate Support |
| 260 |
| Strong Support |
| 250 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 278 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 289 |
