Commodity Markets Outlook Today
Gold is expected to trade range-bound above $4,700/oz today, with a marginal downside bias. Elevated crude oil prices may act as a headwind by reinforcing inflation concerns and dampening expectations of near-term rate cuts. While a softer dollar offers some support, upside is likely to remain capped as markets await developments from the upcoming US-Iran talks. Any constructive diplomatic signals could weigh on prices, whereas a resurgence in geopolitical tensions may provide intermittent support.
Copper is likely to trade range-bound with a slight downside bias today, within the $12,500–$12,900/ton range. Fading risk sentiment and ongoing geopolitical tensions may weigh on sentiment, while elevated crude oil prices and China’s cautious stance could pressure demand expectations. Upside is likely to remain limited unless there is a clear improvement in macro or geopolitical cues.
WTI crude is likely to stay volatile today with a firm upward bias near $98/bbl, supported by ongoing supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz and reduced Saudi output. However, gains may be capped as the broader US-Iran ceasefire keeps overall sentiment in check. Price action will remain headline-driven escalation may push prices higher, while any easing in tensions could trigger profit-taking.
| Commodity Moves | ||||||||||
| Commodity | Exchange | Expiry | Open | High | Low | Close | Net Chg | %Chg | Volume | Oi |
| US Gold | COMEX | Apr | 4,711.00 | 4,799.10 | 4,711.00 | 4,792.20 | 42.70 | 0.90 | 1,277 | 1,227 |
| INX Gold | India Inx | Apr | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gold | MCX | Jun | 1,50,647.00 | 1,53,575.00 | 1,50,647.00 | 1,53,434.00 | 1,658.00 | 1.09 | 5,973 | 7,385 |
| US Silver | COMEX | Apr | 73.78 | 74.49 | 73.78 | 76.28 | 1.05 | 1.40 | 4 | 34 |
| Silver | MCX | May | 2,35,850.00 | 2,44,143.00 | 2,35,133.00 | 2,43,768.00 | 3,850.00 | 1.60 | 6,147 | 5,704 |
| Bulldex | MCX | Apr | ||||||||
| London Copper | LME | 3M | 12,658.50 | 12,715.00 | 12,536.50 | 12,681.50 | (27.50) | -0.22 | 19,242 | - |
| Copper | MCX | Apr | 1,184.65 | 1,193.90 | 1,180.60 | 1,192.95 | 5.20 | 0.44 | 5,973 | 9,212 |
| Nickel | MCX | Apr | 1,622.20 | 1,629.80 | 1,622.20 | 1,627.60 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 111 | 238 |
| Zinc | MCX | Apr | 328.80 | 331.60 | 327.60 | 330.85 | 2.35 | 0.72 | 1,556 | 2,011 |
| Lead | MCX | Apr | 194.45 | 195.55 | 193.30 | 194.50 | (1.25) | -0.64 | 235 | 420 |
| Aluminium | MCX | Apr | 355.50 | 355.50 | 353.45 | 354.25 | (0.60) | -0.17 | 1,215 | 3,091 |
| Metldex | MCX | 0.00 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WTI Crude Oil | NYMEX | May | 96.78 | 102.70 | 95.25 | 97.87 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 4,27,201 | 1,86,195 |
| Brent Crude | ICE | Jun | 97.10 | 99.50 | 94.22 | 95.92 | 1.17 | 1.23 | 4,88,290 | - |
| Crudeoil | MCX | Jun | 9,030.00 | 9,575.00 | 8,866.00 | 8,933.00 | 72.00 | 0.81 | 1,00,134 | 8,361 |
| US Natural Gas | NYMEX | Oct | 2.73 | 2.74 | 2.66 | 2.67 | (0.05) | -1.98 | 1,70,766 | 2,41,030 |
| Natural Gas | MCX | Apr | 256.70 | 257.60 | 249.20 | 250.60 | (3.70) | -1.45 | 69,129 | 40,164 |
| Enrgdex | MCX | Apr |
Commodities in Focus
On the daily chart, MCX Silver (May) is currently trading with a sideways to mildly bearish bias after failing to sustain above the rising trend line, reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure. Prices are also holding below the mean of the Bollinger Bands, indicating persistent negative sentiment and underlying weakness in the trend. Additionally, the RSI remains firmly below the 50 level, reflecting continued bearish momentum and suggesting limited upside in the near term. Considering the current technical setup, a sell-on-rise strategy is recommended.
| SILVER (MAY) |
| CMP Rs. 243768 |
| Trend: Sideways down |
| Immediate Support |
| 232000 |
| Strong Support |
| 224500 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 246800 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 252800 |
On the daily chart, MCX Crude Oil (April) recently tested a high near 10,990 but failed to sustain at elevated levels, and is now trading below the rising trend line, indicating a potential shift toward a bearish market structure. Prices are positioned below the mean of the Bollinger Bands, reflecting persistent negative sentiment and underlying weakness in the trend. Additionally, the RSI remains below the 50 level, signaling continued bearish momentum, although any near- term upside is likely to remain limited. Given the prevailing technical setup, a sell-on-rise strategy is recommended.
| CRUDE OIL (APRIL) |
| CMP Rs. 8933 |
| Trend: Sideways down |
| Immediate Support |
| 8640 |
| Strong Support |
| 8450 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 9250 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 9640 |
On the daily chart, MCX Natural Gas (April) is exhibiting a clear lower top–lower bottom formation, reinforcing the prevailing bearish market structure. Prices continue to trade below the mean of the Bollinger Bands, indicating sustained negative sentiment and underlying weakness in the trend. Furthermore, the RSI remains consistently below the 50 level, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum and suggesting limited upside potential in the near term. Given the current technical setup, a sell-on-rise strategy appears appropriate.
| NATURAL GAS (APRIL) |
| CMP Rs. 250.6 |
| Trend: Sideways down |
| Immediate Support |
| 245 |
| Strong Support |
| 238 |
| Immediate Resistance |
| 258 |
| Strong Resistance |
| 265 |
