Weekly Market Outlook

It turned out to be a fabulous week of trade for Indian equity benchmarks with frontline gauges garnering weekly gains of over two percentage points and settling above their record 79,000 (Sensex) and 24,000 (Nifty) levels.

During the week, traders were seen taking bullish bets in fundamentally strong stocks in hopes of continuity in reforms and focus on the 100-day agenda of the NDA government. Sentiments are also buoyed by the expected revival in the technology space and consolidation in the cement industry.

Markets started the week slightly in the green as traders found some support after the GST Council at its 53rd meeting introduced sweeping reforms with an aim to simplify tax compliance and ease the burden on taxpayers.

Some support also came after S&P Global Market Intelligence said that the new government will likely focus on job creation and addressing farmers’ concerns in its first 100 days.

Markets extended their northward journey and looked resilient during most part of the week taking support from RBI’s statement that India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP.

Sentiments also remained upbeat with CRISIL Ratings’ report stating that capital goods makers are likely to see revenue rise 9-11% in fiscal 2025, led by continued significant outlays towards railways (including metros), defence, conventional and renewable sectors.

This compares with an expected around 13% growth in fiscal 2024. Optimism continued on Dalal Street taking support from RBI’s data showing that India’s financial position with the rest of the world improved over the year. The country increased its overseas assets more than it increased its foreign liabilities, largely due to a rise in reserve assets.

Key gauges continued to hit record levels one after other as traders took support with the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) stating that India’s economy is set to achieve significant growth, with projections nearing 7.5% for the current fiscal year (FY25).

Some solace also came with CRISIL’s report stating that India’s current account surplus in the fourth quarter of the 2023-24 fiscal was aided by the narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit, an increase in remittances and a surplus in services trade. The country’s current account recorded a surplus of $5.7 billion, which is 0.6 per cent of the GDP, in the fourth quarter of the last financial year.

However, domestic markets ended the week off record highs as traders booked minor gains on the final day of the week as participants turned wary of the high valuations. Traders also took note of a report that Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) at its board meeting approved new criteria for a single stock F&O entry and exit, voluntary delisting norms and flexibility on the same, norms on finfluencers, measures to ease of doing business for REITs and InvITs and many other decisions.

Despite profit booking in the last session, Sensex and Nifty managed to settle above their psychological levels of 79,000 and 24,000, respectively. 

BSE movement for the week

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex jumped 1822.83 points or 2.36% to 79,032.73 during the week ended June 28, 2024.

The BSE Midcap index gained 191.28 points or 0.42% to 46,158.35 and the Small-cap index surged 193.88 points or 0.37% to 52,130.41.

On the sectoral front, S&P BSE TECK was up by 404.35 points or 2.41% to 17,164.41, S&P BSE Information Technology was up by 778.65 points or 2.15% to 36,951.36, S&P BSE Oil & Gas was up by 610.10 points or 2.11% to 29,473.40, S&P BSE Power was up by 138.80 points or 1.78% to 7,954.50 and S&P BSE BANKEX was up by 944.30 points or 1.61% to 59,640.90 were the top gainers.

S&P BSE Realty was down by 208.67 points or 2.36% to 8,634.76 and S&P BSE Metal was down by 685.83 points or 2.03% to 33,050.57 were the few losers on the BSE.

NSE movement for the week

The Nifty surged 509.50 points or 2.17% to 24,010.60.

On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Nifty IT was up by 957.20 points or 2.72% to 36,157.50, Bank Nifty was up by 680.80 points or 1.32% to 52,342.25, Nifty Next 50 gained 411.65 points or 0.58% to 71,523.45 and Nifty Mid Cap 100 gained 307.75 points or 0.56% to 55,736.90.

FII transactions during the week

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the equity segment in the week, with gross purchases of Rs 132,345.34 crore and gross sales of Rs 117,951.08 crore, leading to a net inflow of Rs 14,394.26 crore.

They also stood as net buyers in the debt segment with gross purchases of Rs 12,056.35 crore against gross sales of Rs 7,676.37 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 4,379.98 crore.

In the hybrid segment, FIIs stood as net sellers, with gross purchases of Rs 170.79 crore and gross sales of Rs 246.02 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 75.23 crore.

Outlook for the coming week

The passing week turned enthusiastic one for Indian equity markets, by hitting fresh record high levels garnering gains of over two percent this week.  

The coming week marks the start of a new month and auto stocks will be buzzing on reporting monthly sales figures. Market participants will be watching out for the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final scheduled to be released on July 01.

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI increased to 58.5 in June 2024 from May’s three-month low of 57.5, preliminary estimates showed.

HSBC Composite PMI Final, HSBC Services PMI Final scheduled to be released on July 03. Foreign Exchange Reserves data going to be out on July 05. 

The first session of 18th Lok Sabha and 264th Session of Rajya Sabha will be concluding on July 3. The first session of 18th Lok Sabha commenced on June 24. While 264th Session of Rajya Sabha had started on June 27. 

On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy, starting with Fed Williams Speech on June 30, followed by S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, ISM Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Manufacturing Prices on July 01.

Redbook, Fed Chair Powell Speech, JOLTs Job Openings on July 02, Balance of Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, S&P Global Composite PMI Final, S&P Global Services PMI Final, ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes on July 03, Non – Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on July 05.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *